The statement I am about to make will most certainly shock any sports bettor who reads it. While most of us are under the impression that everyone betting sports wins long term, so long as they bet often enough, this is NOT actually true.
Wait you are not surprised? Of course, you are NOT if you read the articles on this site! Everyone knows the bookmaker has an advantage so more times than NOT sports bettors lose. However, what if there was a way that the rolls could be reversed; what if the sports bettor always had the advantage?
This is in fact possible.
Have you ever heard the term advantage player? This is a label gambling companies assign to players who only bet when the odds are in their favor.
Even though “on average” bookmakers have a 4.55% advantage on straight bets; advantage players find bets where the bookmaker’s advantage is negative. Whether your goal is to be a sports betting pro, or just earn a little money on the side, the first step to winning is to stop making –EV bets.
If you understand what expected value, -EV, and +EV mean, go ahead and skip down to our advice on finding +EV bets. If you’re not familiar with this concept continue reading.
Expected Value (EV) Explained
Expected value is a term professional gamblers use on a regular basis. To explain what it means in simple terms I will use an example. Let us say me and you decided to have a coin flipping contest. We flip coins and you give me $1 for each outcome of heads; I give you $1 for each outcome of tails. We could flip coins for all eternity and neither of us will ever have an advantage because on average half the time we lose $1 half the time we win $1. While there will be swings back and forth, as long as we flip the coin enough times eventually we will both break even. This particular bet has neutral expected value.
Now let us say I am tired of flipping coins, and want to quit, but while begging me to stay you offer me a better deal. This new deal pays me $1.10 for every heads, and I still pay you $1.00 for every tails. What happens now is half the time I win $1.10 and half the time I lose $1.00. If we flip 100 times I should average 50 wins of $1.10 ($55) and 50 losses of $1 ($50). Every flip of the coin I have a positive expectation (+EV) of 5 cents. As the one offering me this proposition you have the opposite, every flip of the coin is 5 cents –EV for you.
Every wager made in sports betting has either a positive expected value (+EV), negative expectation value (-EV) or in rare cases neutral expected value. Winning sports betting requires avoiding –EV and finding +EV bets.
Finding +EV Sports Bets
The reasons most sports bettors do NOT spend time learning the tricks of advantage players is it is slightly time consuming, most have no leads how to do it, are overwhelmed or when they do learn it is NOT actually fun. If you are looking for something fun we suggest paint balling, a trip to the amusement park, circus or what have you. If you are looking to actually make money then you will need to know how to find +EV bets.
When you combine +EV bets with free bonus cash, winning at sports betting is a cinch. The only piece of the puzzle you have left is protecting and growing your bankroll. Our best advice here, never wager more than a few percent of what you have on hand on a single game and read the articles on this site!