Baseball Underdog System
By: Richard Bleuze
The Baseball Underdog System is based on a law of averages which shows that over the long term, MLB underdogs beat favorites about 4 games out of 9 (or 44% of the time). Even with moneyline odds on underdogs earning you better than even money -- meaning that at +130 you lay $10 to win $13 -- you need to rack up better than a record of 4 wins and 5 losses every day to make substantial profits.
However, instead of simply betting on the underdogs in every game, you must weed out about two-thirds of the games by following 3 simple criteria:
1. Eliminate games in which the underdog has lost 3 or more games in a row and/or the favorite has won 3 or more games in a row.
2. Eliminate games in which the moneyline odds on the underdog are greater than +150 or so.
3. Eliminate games in which the underdog is facing one of the Top 20 pitchers in the league -according to earned-run average (ERA).
Following the above 3 rules, on a day with a full slate of as many as 15 games, you should be left with between 3 and 9 on which to wager.
As a general rule, I suggest that all sports bettors should have access to more than one sportsbook . Odds can vary wildly from one site to the next, and you should shop around for the ones giving you the best possible odds on any particular game. For instance, if you’re betting 5 games on a particular day, you may want to spread those wagers over 2 Web sites depending on who’s giving the best odds on each underdog.
The simple formula for setting the Series Amounts in the Baseball Underdog System is
.0125 x your Bankroll = Series Amount. This means you bet 1.25% of your bankroll on every game. So, if your bankroll is $1,600, you would bet $20 on every game. By playing an average of 5 games per day, that means you’ll be betting $100 a day. This protects your betting bankroll in the same way as dividing it into 4 betting blocks. In fact, you would have to go 0 wins and 80 losses -- or 16 days without a win -- to entirely deplete your bankroll.
The Rules To Follow In The Baseball Underdog System:
1) Each day, check the American and National League schedules and automatically eliminate any games in which the moneyline odds on the underdogs are greater than +150 or so.
2) Of the games that remain, eliminate any games in which the underdogs have lost 3 or more games in a row or the favorites have won 3 or more games in a row. (This information is included in almost all newspapers’ daily MLB standings.)
3) Of the games that are left, eliminate any games in which the favored team’s pitcher is among the Top 20 of the AL or NL in ERA,.
4) On a day with a full slate of games, you should be left with 3 to 9 games to bet on between the AL and NL. Make $20 wagers (according to our example Bankroll) on the underdog in each game, shopping around at all your favorite sports book (See our review page) for the best possible moneyline odds.
5) Before making the next day’s bets, roll your profits into your betting bankroll and increase your wagers accordingly, putting 1.25% of your bankroll on each game.
Summing It All Up:
Baseball history shows that in 4 of 9 games, underdogs beat favorites. Alone, this doesn’t give you enough of an advantage over your sports book, but with the 3 key criteria in the Baseball Underdog System, you’ll have the edge you should need to consistently pick winners.
Since you have better than even-money odds on your side, you don’t have to pick much better than 47% underdog winners to post a substantial profit. Thus, you can realistically expect to make up to $3,500 or more by betting just $20 a game during baseball season using this baseball underdog system.
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About the Author:
Richard's articles and picks can be found on http://www.24-7wagering.com
He also provides article on horse racing on http://www.bettingthehorsesonline.com
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