March Madness Analysis Articles | Gambling

By: Richard Bleuze

March Madness Analysis

Well, it is that time of year again for NCAA basketball tournament.  I believe that seeding is by far the most important factor in a team's tournament success.   However, there are many other factors that can help determine who will win these games. 

The first step in filling out your bracket is to understand the importance of seeding.  In general, the better the seed, the better the team.  There are  exceptions, however, to this rule. 

Another criteria used by the NCAA Selection Committee is to determine who gets a tournament invitation is a team's record over its last ten games. For this reason, most of the field has a solid record in this category.  In addition the team with the better "last ten" record is important when attempting to predict NCAA tournament winners since they usually win.

Another criteria used by the Selection Committee in determining who is invited to the "Big Dance" is a team's road/neutral court record.  In the past, the team with the better road/neutral record won the majority of time  this finding lends strength to the argument that teams who have shown the ability to win on the road have a better chance to win against equally strong teams that have not performed as well away from home.

A long suspected barometer for potential success in the tournament has been the team's record against the RPI Top 50  Most of the teams in the RPI Top 50 wind up in the NCAA Tournament so this measure shows how each team has performed against tournament caliber competition.  However, this factor in my opinion is not strong.  However, I still feel that a team's performance against the top RPI teams is a useful measure, but one would be advised to examine each team's schedule individually because many tournament teams are very different in March - for better or worse - than they were in November and December when many of the nation's top teams meet in non-conference battles.

I have always felt that teams who play three times in three days in their conference tournaments perform poorly the following week in the NCAA Tournament, especially in the second round as the fatigue caused by the previous week sets in.  Thus, losing early in a conference tournament may be a blessing in disguise.

The #1 and #2 seeds are usually the best teams in the country and thus they should have enough talent to rise above the fatigue.  In addition, the best teams often have the deepest benches.  Thus, if a coach can rotate eight or nine players in and out the lineup and rest his starters, fatigue becomes less of a factor.

Other factors to consider are:

1.  The better shooting team usually will win the majority of the time -  defensive intensity increases at tournament time so outside shots will be that much tougher to make.  A good shooting team is much better equipped to overcome tight defensive pressure than a poor shooting team.

2. The team with the better field goal percentage defense will win the majority of the games.

3.   Teams that consistently make their free throws usually will win more often than not.

4.  The better rebounding teams usually will have more success in the Tournament.

5.  Finally, teams with the better turnover margin usually will win their games.

In conclusion, the most important statistical factors affecting who will win NCAA Tournament games between similarly seeded teams are field goal percentage, defensive field goal percentage and defensive rebounding.

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