How To Bet Pro Football Articles | Gambling

By: Richard Bleuze

The NFL is where the sports books see the most action and also make the most money. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are not found in any of the other major sports. To begin with, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in the NFL.  In addition , the teams in the NFL play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the other leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of my NFL handicapping model.  I will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, not betting on the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

In my opinion, the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute sports gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet.   There are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and they should not be ignored.  Let me quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

To find the answer, I've studies the past five years worth of Week 1 NFL data.  The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow my lead as I expose some holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

1.  Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.  The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from.  Thus, the oddsmakers almost always favor the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

2.  Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in week 1.

3.  Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games - Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

4.  Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

5.  “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.  An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

6.  Finally, IGNORE PRESEASON STATS!

In conclusion, oddsmakers make the NFL lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides.   Thus, do your homework and go against the oddsmakers and you'll make NFL profits!

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