Popular NBA Betting Systems Articles | Gambling

By: Richard Bleuze

Popular NBA Betting Systems.

#1:  Rivalries 
In the NBA, loosing to a divisional rival is a major event. Not only does the loosing team lose a game, but they also loose footing in the division. Since they only play each other four times a season, teams treat divisional rivalries with great care.  Loosing a home game to a division rival is like loosing two games; therefore, such a team will be that much more hungrier the next time such a team plays a game.

#2:  Triple Revenge
NBA triple revenge is perhaps the strongest angle in sports betting. It occurs when the same coast teams meet for the 4th time in the season, whereby one teams has beaten the other three times in a row. The latter team gets major motivation during this fourth game and usually annihilates their opposition. I've has noticed,however, an interesting side angle that is most strongest: in that backing the underdog seeking triple revenge will usually cover the spread when they are 7-point underdogs.

#3:  Role Of National TV
Blowouts in nationally televised games bring about a sense of wonder to the public. The public loves to bet on winners, and what better way to bet than to back a team coming off a blowout.  Psychologically, a team that has just blown out a team will feel superior and somewhat arrogant. They will play their next game with a sense of arrogance, which will usually also lead them to not cover and lose their game.

#4:  Style Of Play
In the NBA, the tendency of winning teams nowadays is to play fast—like the Phoenix Suns. Since the rule change regarding touch fouls came into effect a few years back, less and less teams are playing physical basketball. Such teams are now getting into foul trouble early, thus, playing this way is becoming less and less prevalent and more and more obsolete. The commissioner decided to change the rules of the game to help the game become for flashy; meanwhile, it has now favored run and gun teams like the high flying Suns and other such teams.
High flying, offensive teams usually are good bets for the overs. Such teams usually feature a weak defense and a strong offensive front.  However, beware, though, such over under lines will be inflated for the over. It is, then, up to the sports bettor to isolate situations that will still yield overs even if the line is overly inflated.

#5:  Fatigue Factor 
In the NBA, fatigue has become overrated. Fading teams off back-to-back games used to be good bets. Their lines were so soft, that it became rather commonplace to go against such teams. But, as word let out, oddsmakers quickly started to shade such teams. Teams also are now preparing more vigorously for such game situations. They do not expend too much energy in the first game of a back to back.

#6:  Margins Of Victory
When teams in the NBA get smoked one night, they usually return the favor to another team the following night (the angle gets stronger when it is a home and home series—the two teams play a mini two-game series). If a team gets smoked on national television, rest assure that oddsmakers will give them extra points the next time they play basketball.

#7:  Home Team Advantage - Role Of The Fans
In the NBA, home court advantage can be measured by a 3-4 point swing for each arena. This is especially, true in college basketball.

#8:  Historical Matchups
As a sports bettor, this is useful because there are instances where one team simply owns another team. In other words, one team always always covers the game.  It is at these instances that the sports bettor should be aware and bet accordingly. In some matchups, the home team is really dominant, whereas in other matchups, the visiting team has the advantage. Another thing to consider is who covers the majority of the games. In some instances one team may own another, but does not cover the spread.

#9:  Whose Got The Biggest Man
To win an NBA championship, a team must have a good defense, a good core of players, a good coach, and most importantly a big man inside. The last requirement is interesting, in that, the past couple championship teams have all had big men inside. A big man brings value to the team and they are necessary in winning an NBA championship.

#10:  A Long Road Trip (+4 Games)
One angle that I have found that works extremely well this season involves betting on basketball teams coming home off of a long road trip.

#11:  Travel Factor
There are several travel angles to consider when placing a bet. One such example is going against a team at home if such a team has just returned from a long road trip (greater than 5 games).  Teams in such situations often are caught off guard and do not perform to their potential. As an example, if a Western team is on an 8 game Eastern road trip and finally returns home, such a team’s first game at home might be a little off. There are psychological, physical, and social factor at play here: primarily, such a long road trip may affect some players’ comfort level. Secondly, fatigue from such a long trip finally surfaces a few days after returning home. And thirdly, players are human also—they might have missed their family and friends during their long road trip—thus adding to the “unimportance” of their first home game back home.

#12:  Overtime Games
In the NBA, overtime (OT) games are very taxing and quite emotional. Such teams who play in such situations are prone to letdowns in their ensuing games. An adjunct to this are double / triple OT games. As expected, teams who play in these types of games will not be as focused as those who did not play an OT game in their last game.

#13:  Road Trip
Go against the teams that are traveling from the east coast to the west coast because of the time difference. Playing at 7PM on the west coast is like playing at 10PM in the east. This would mean they finish the game close to 1AM their natural body time. So when the game is in the 4th quarter and is on the line, they will have trouble adjusting to it.

Go against teams in the last game of their road trip if it is a meaningless opponent. All games matter but the last game of a road trip will generally result in lost interest by the team in question.

Go against the teams that are playing a top quality team.

Teams who have been winning on a road trip (greater than .500) usually lose the last game of such a trip. On the opposite spectrum, teams who have been loosing usually give their maximum effort in their last game. Psychologically, such teams feel a need to salvage such a trip, thus they will do their best to win that last game.

In both scenarios, though, the first game back from a long road trip is a very dangerous spot for teams in this scenario. After being gone for so long, these teams often suffer from complacency. Athletes are people too, and as such, their focus will not entirely be on playing. The players may have gone out with their family, friends, etc. and their mindset will not be as complete.

As a side note, teams who are about to embark on a long road trip usually will want to begin such a trip on a positive note. As such, it will benefit the sports gambler if he backs such a team on the first game of such a long road trip. This first game will set the tempo of the rest of the trip, and the sports gambler can be rest assured that the team he is backing will devote 100% of their effort in this first game.

#14:  Winning By 1 Point
The kiss of death to any NBA team with respect to the spread is a one-point win. Yes, they will lose the very next game with higher probability than if they had lost the game by 1 point. Or won by 2 points.

#15:  Is The Home Team Motivated
I like home teams when they are motivated. Because a good basketball team can feed off of the energy of their home fans to help their play on the court. And if the team in question lost a game after being up big, they will be most likely to keep a big lead.

The following are great sources of motivation for an NBA Basketball team:

Coming off a loss.
Losing by 1 point.
Coming off a poor offensive performance such as scoring less than 70 points. Coming off a poor defensive performance.
Coming home off a very poor road trip.
Losing as a favorite

Well, my primary goal is to have the average NBA sports bettor stop having to rely on the so called "experts", and teach them how to generate profits by utilizing any of the simple, proven & thoroughly tested systems provided above.
However, if you still need assistance in picking games because of the lack of time, etc., I hope that you will give my guaranteed handicapping service a try!