Betting Underdogs in the MLB
Most sports bettors tend to bet the favorites more often than they bet on an underdog in the MLB. However, the key to being successful in betting the MLB, is to find value. Value is the difference between the price you are getting with the odds and the true chances of a team winning. Thus, value can often be found in betting the underdogs!
I have found that it is best to bet the MLB underdogs early in the year, as oddsmakers are still adjusting to the new rosters. In addition, you will soon find out that this is also the only time of the year where all 30 teams are in the mix.
If you take the time to review the past years, you can see there is a lot of value in focusing in on the underdogs in the month of April.
TIP: A profitable situation that I have found is underdogs (+105 or more) in the month of April, who have lost the first two games of a series and were also an underdog in the most recent loss deserves a look!
Another underdog MLB system that you should consider in the early months of April and May, is road underdogs of +100 to +150 who are coming off a loss with a losing overall record against a team with a winning record.
Another underdog MLB system is when the MLB team is home after a long road trip (7 to 10 games).
Since the MLB season is a long, there are a lot of long road trips. It is always difficult to play on the road and most players cannot wait to see their families. In addition, the fans are happy to see their teams and show it by coming out in groves! As a result, the team shows their appreciation by giving their best!
In addition, home underdogs below .500 and have a line between +106 to +170 are “good” bets also!
Despite that the MLB schedule is 162 games, division games have a lot more meaning to them. Generally, the MLB teams within the division are rivals.
You will find that division games make up just about half of a team’s schedule, or 76 games per year. Because of this the games become a focal point small to medium home dog usually deliver big profits!
In fact, division home dogs with a line of +100 to +145, who lost Game 1 of a series as a home favorite and have a record of .500 or worse on the season are “good” bets to make you a winner!
In addition, bet on MLB underdogs that are “hot” over the last six games and who are playing favorites that have struggled during the past week.
In addition, find MLB underdog teams that are coming off a high scoring game. Look for teams who scored 10 or more runs the previous night and is an underdog team in the present game that you are handicapping..
Finally, try to find bad teams that do well against right or left-handed pitchers at home or on the road, or against a particular starter and you will have a profitable summer.